You forecast for yourself here: chart, barometer and sky first, then the official forecast weighed against the coast.
1 · Pressure and wind
Isobars and the barometer
With my back to the wind, where is the area of low pressure?
On your left and a little ahead, in the northern hemisphere: Buys Ballot's law. Wind blows anticlockwise round a low and clockwise round a high, angled slightly towards the low pressure.
In the north, wind blows anticlockwise round a low and clockwise round a high, angled slightly towards low pressure. Back to the wind, the low is on your left, a little ahead: Buys Ballot's law.
Lowsouth side: WSW
Higheast side: NNW
Halve the isobar spacing and the wind doubles. The chart's geostrophic scale reads the wind aloft: at sea take two thirds, more at lower latitudes for the same spacing.
hPa in 3 h
Tendency
Under 1.6
Slowly
1.6–3.5
Falling or rising
3.6–6
Quickly: strong wind coming
Over 6
Very rapidly: gale
A fast rise blows as hard as a fast fall; an offset error leaves the tendency true.
2 · Lows and fronts
What a passing low does
Will the wind veer or back as a depression passes?
If the centre passes north of you the wind veers, clockwise through S, SW and NW; if it passes south, it backs through SE, E and NE. A frontal low travels along its warm-sector isobars.
A frontal low travels along its warm-sector isobars. If the centre passes north of you the wind veers, clockwise: S, SW, NW. If it passes south, the wind backs: SE, E, NE.
Stage
Weather
Wind · barometer
Warm front
Cirrus, halo, lowering cloud, rain
Backs · falls
Warm sector
Drizzle, mild, poor visibility
Veers SW · steady
Cold front
Squalls, heavy rain
Sharp veer NW · jumps
Behind it
Showers, clear air
Gusty NW · rises fast
When the cold front catches the warm one the low is occluded: it stops deepening and fills. An occlusion brings rain, then a veer and showers. A trough is a weak front; a ridge between lows a brief fair spell, so sail early. A secondary low on the trailing front can deepen fast and outblow its parent.
3 · Forecasts
Sources, words and limits
What does "gale soon" mean in a forecast?
Soon means 6 to 12 hours from the time of issue; imminent is within 6 hours, later over 12. A gale warning for soon, issued at 0600 UTC, means any time from 1200 to 1800 UTC.
NAVTEX: English on 518 kHz, national language on 490; types A, B and D (navigational and weather warnings, search and rescue) cannot be switched off. A SÉCURITÉ call on VHF 16 names a working channel: go there and write it down.
Gale warning, issued 0600 UTC
“W gale 8 soon”
Imminent: within 6 h of issue
Soon: 6–12 h · later: over 12 h
So: any time from 1200 to 1800 UTC
Term
Means
Steadily · rather quickly
15–25 · 25–35 kn
Gale 8 · severe 9 · storm 10
34–40 · 41–47 · 48–55 kn
Visibility moderate · poor · fog
2–5 M · 1000 m–2 M · less
Sea moderate · rough · very rough
Up to 2.5 · 4 · 6 m
Cyclonic
Centre close: big, quick shifts
Locally
Straits and capes
A GRIB is one model's mean wind on a coarse grid: no gusts, no funnelling. Add the coast yourself, plan on the earlier of two models, trust the newest official forecast. A barb points where the wind comes from: long feather 10 kn, short 5.
4 · Wind and sea
Beaufort, apparent wind, waves
Why is the sea so steep off a headland when the wind is against the tide?
Wind against tide makes short, steep, breaking seas, worst off headlands at full stream. Round them near slack water and well off, and avoid shoal banks, where seas break as the depth falls to about their height.
Beaufort force is the mean wind (force 7: 28–33 kn); log gusts beside it. Rig load grows as the square of the wind: 24 kn pulls 2¼ times as hard as 16.
Running14 felt + 9 boat = 23 true
Beating24 felt, 19 true
Waves grow with wind, fetch and duration: the least sea lies under a weather shore. Forecast heights are significant: the odd wave is nearly twice as high. Swell and wind sea combine as √(swell² + sea²): 2.0 and 1.5 m give 2.5 m. A new long swell announces a distant low.
Wind against tide makes short, steep, breaking seas, worst off headlands at full stream: round near slack water, well off. Seas also break where depth falls to about their height: avoid shoal banks.
5 · The coast
Breezes and high land
When does the sea breeze start and how strong does it get?
On a settled day a sea breeze sets in by late morning, reaches force 3–4 by mid-afternoon, veers a little and dies at dusk. A light offshore wind can hold it off behind a calm belt.
On a settled day a sea breeze sets in by late morning, reaches force 3–4 by mid-afternoon, veers a little and dies at dusk; hot slopes strengthen it (anabatic). A light offshore wind holds it off behind a calm belt. By night a land breeze blows, and off steep slopes a cold katabatic wind, strongest before dawn.
Straitstronger, along it
High island's leegusts off the slopes
High land bends the wind along straits and round headlands, and speeds it up. A high island casts a wind shadow with a sharp edge, yet in strong winds gusts fall down its lee slopes, hardest at night. Lens-shaped clouds over the peaks warn of them.
6 · Mediterranean winds
Named winds
When is the best time to sail upwind in the Meltemi?
At dawn, before it builds: the Meltemi blows from the north in the Aegean, under clear skies, at force 6–7 for days, peaking after noon, set up by a Balkan high and a Turkish low.
Wind
From
Signs
Meltemi
N, Aegean
Balkan high, Turkish low; clear, 6–7 for days, peak after noon
Bora
NE, Adriatic
Cloud cap on the mountains, rising glass; violent gusts
Jugo (Sirocco)
SE, Adriatic
Haze, dust, slow build, big sea; may end in Bora
Mistral
NW, Gulf of Lion
After a cold front, Genoa low; clear, 7–8 for days
Levante
E, Alborán
Funnelled at Gibraltar; long swell
Poyraz
NE, Turkey
Cold, strong; with the Dardanelles current
Make upwind miles at dawn, before a Meltemi builds. Gusts in km/h ÷ 1.852 give knots: 100 km/h is 54 kn.
7 · Fog and thunder
No visibility, sudden wind
Will a stronger wind clear sea fog?
No: sea fog is warm moist air over colder water, and wind does not clear it; a sea breeze carries it inshore. Radiation fog, formed over land on clear calm nights, is gone by mid-morning.
Fog forms as air cools to its dew point: a degree apart, fix your position, ready radar and horn. Sea fog is warm moist air over colder water: wind does not clear it; a sea breeze carries it inshore. Radiation fog forms over land on clear calm nights, gone by mid-morning. Frontal fog lifts once the warm front passes.
A thunderstorm throws a cold gust front ahead of its rain: reef first; at anchor, leave room to swing right round. Over high ground they break late in the day. Flash-to-thunder seconds ÷ 3 give kilometres. Stars vanishing to windward: a squall. After a strike, check the through-hulls and hull for leaks first.
Practice questions
Questions from this topic, as the app asks them. Open one to see the answer.
This is the synoptic picture at noon. Where does the wind come from at your position?
From about WSW
From about S
From about N
From about ENE
Show the answer
A. From about WSW
In the north air circles a low anticlockwise, angled in towards the centre: south of it the wind is about WSW.
All 100 questions of this topic are in the app: practice by topic with the reason after every answer, your mistakes brought back, and a timed mock exam. Free, no sign-up, in the browser or in Telegram.